On this week's CJS Research Webinar, Professor Garren Mulloy introduced the Post-Imperial Armed Forces and its development during the Cold War, adapted to post-Cold War events and their contributions to Japanese and global security possible reconfiguration for Japan’s future security needs.
During the talk, Professor Mulloy brought up the provocative launch of a North Korean ballistic missile over Japan on 4 October 2022. The missile flew for 20 minutes and covered 4200 kilometers before ultimately landing in the Pacific Ocean. While this wasn't the first time North Korea had tested missiles over Japan, it was undoubtedly the most dangerous and alarming.
I remember when I read the news last year, I wondered about Japan's challenges and dilemmas in dealing with the North Korean missile threat, as in the legal and political implications of whether or not to shoot down a North Korean missile.
One of the most pressing issues was whether or not Japan would legally and politically be able to shoot down a North Korean missile if it wasn't explicitly targeted at Japan. The situation is further complicated by the possible outcomes of attempting to intercept a missile - if Japan tries and fails, it could encourage North Korea or damage Japan's credibility. On the other hand, if Japan tries and succeeds, it could provoke or deter North Korea. Additionally, if Japan doesn't attempt to intercept a missile that ends up hitting U.S. territory, it could lead to strained alliances and a damaged reputation. These are some tricky questions that Professor Mulloy believes the Japanese government has not thoroughly thought through.
It's clear that the North Korean missile threat is not just a technical or military problem - it's also a strategic and diplomatic one. Japan needs to work closely with the U.S. and other regional partners, especially China, in order to address the issue adequately. China, in particular, is a critical player in influencing North Korea's behavior and enforcing sanctions. However, China also has its own interests and concerns in the region and is hesitant to see Japan become more assertive or militarised in response to the North Korean threat.
The North Korean missile threat is a complex and daunting challenge that poses significant security risks to Japan and the broader region. As Professor Mulloy highlighted in his talk, this threat demands a comprehensive and strategic response involving military capabilities and diplomatic and political measures. Japan's leaders face difficult choices in responding to these threats, balancing the need to protect their citizens with the risks of escalation and damage to their reputation. It is imperative that Japan works closely with its regional partners, particularly the U.S. and China, to address this threat and promote peace and stability in the region.